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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Regulation
  3. Will the carried interest loophole be closed?
Will the carried interest loophole be closed?

Will the carried interest loophole be closed?

RegulationOne-OffPoliticsUS Politics6mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2027
Before Jan 1, 2027 8%
Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality

24 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$0

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

2.0% / 24.0%

Spread

1100.0%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 7 minutes ago

May 14, 26, 8:00 PMJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Before Jan 1, 2028
Before Jan 1, 2028
0%
Before Jan 1, 2029
Before Jan 1, 2029
0%
Before Jan 1, 2030
Before Jan 1, 2030
0%

Selected outcome

Before Jan 1, 20278%

Rules

If legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • To qualify, the legislation must mandate that carried interest be taxed at a rate equal to or greater than ordinary income rates.
  • The legislation will trigger a Yes resolution even if this change only applies to taxpayers above a certain income threshold (e.g., individuals earning over $400,000).
  • Minor adjustments to the required holding period (e.g., extending the current 3-year rule under Section 1061) will not suffice for a Yes resolution.
  • The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage.
  • For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override.

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Rules

If legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • To qualify, the legislation must mandate that carried interest be taxed at a rate equal to or greater than ordinary income rates.
  • The legislation will trigger a Yes resolution even if this change only applies to taxpayers above a certain income threshold (e.g., individuals earning over $400,000).
  • Minor adjustments to the required holding period (e.g., extending the current 3-year rule under Section 1061) will not suffice for a Yes resolution.
  • The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage.
  • For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override.