KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityBefore Jan 1, 2028 17%Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
36 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$6.1
Low liquidityBid / Ask
2.0% / 7.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 16 minutes ago
May 14, 26, 8:00 PMJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM
Trends
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before Jan 1, 20272%
Volume trend
$0.00Jul 37d of dataJul 25
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If legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- To qualify, the legislation must mandate that carried interest be taxed at a rate equal to or greater than ordinary income rates.
- The legislation will trigger a Yes resolution even if this change only applies to taxpayers above a certain income threshold (e.g., individuals earning over $400,000).
- Minor adjustments to the required holding period (e.g., extending the current 3-year rule under Section 1061) will not suffice for a Yes resolution.
- If legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.