KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 29, 2026, 4:56 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Before Jan 1, 2030 · —
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Stored price
Before Jan 1, 2030 50.5%Leader of 4 outcomes
Before Jan 1, 2030 50.5%Market quality
27 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$42
Low open interestBid / Ask
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Before Jan 1, 2030Spread
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Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 14, 26, 8:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jan 1, 2030
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026
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PolymarketWill the "Mega Backdoor" Roth 401k tax loophole be removed by end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the "Backdoor" Roth IRA loophole be removed by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the next US president close the step-up basis tax loophole?
Manifold MarketsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketRules
If legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- To qualify, the legislation must mandate that carried interest be taxed at a rate equal to or greater than ordinary income rates. The legislation will trigger a Yes resolution even if this change only applies to taxpayers above a certain income threshold (e.g., individuals earning over $400,000). Minor adjustments to the required holding period (e.g., extending the current 3-year rule under Section 1061) will not suffice for a Yes resolution.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 1, 2030
- If legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2029
- If legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.