California One Time Billionaire Tax 2026 prop bets
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionBusiness & CorporateMacro & EconomyManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedAwaiting verified resolution: Appears on ballot in California in 2026
Resolved: Oct 19, 2026, 4:34 AM
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 19, 2026, 3:57 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Appears on ballot in California in 202696%
Appears on ballot in Ca2026 and Gavin Newsom endorses voting yes on it2.6%
Does not appear on ballot due to lawsuit15.5%
Does not appear on ballot due to insufficient signatures7.1%
Awaiting result
Awaiting result
Awaiting result
Awaiting result
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves based on official statements from the govt of California, or major media reporting, that a ballot measure for a one time billionaire tax will appear on the ballot in 2026.
- Must be a one time tax, and target individuals, families, households or family units with net worth or assets over 1b.
- Endorses is a public endorsement.
- Rumours of what he votes for or says he wants behind closed doors is not enough for resolution.
- Resolves to his first endorsement of a side.
- If he endorsed yes or no, would immediately resolve.