Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 89.9%
Forecasters
36
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingSep 4, 24, 1:07 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
PolymarketWill Elon Musk die before 75% of the US has self driving cars
Manifold MarketsWhich planet will Elon Musk die on?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk die of natural causes?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk die before Peter Thiel?
Manifold MarketsWill Roy Lee become a billionaire before 2029?
KalshiRules
According to the Forbes list, will Elon Musk’s net worth be >=$1B at his time of death?
- Elon must be dead for 24hours for this to Resolve, to lessen the hoax risk.