At close, what % of the Manifold users will think that GiveWell's work before 2023 was net positive? Resolves in 100 years, but has .1% chance to resolve each year. Vote Yes to increase %.
GeopoliticsOne-OffSociety & CultureManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 86.9%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 56 minutes ago
LaggingDec 13, 22, 10:59 AM UTCDec 31, 23, 11:59 PM UTC
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Ie using all the knowledge we have at the time! So if the increased wealth starts a war that noone could have forseen, this still resolves negatilvely.
- Rolling 1000 on a 1-1000 randomiser will resolve.
