Current community forecast
No 50.4%
Forecasters
46
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleApr 22, 24, 2:23 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 10:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will manifold users think we have AGI? [Resolves to a majority yes in poll]
Manifold MarketsDo Manifold users think that Model UN is dumb? (resolves end of 2026)
Manifold MarketsAt close, what % of the Manifold users will think that GiveWell's work before 2023 was net positive? Resolves in 100 years, but has .1% chance to resolve each year. Vote Yes to increase %.
Manifold MarketsAt the end of 2030 will Manifold users think Wikipedia has changed for the better compared to 2020?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat happens first: AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes or All Millennium Prize Problems Solved?
Manifold MarketsRules
When this market resolves YES:
- https://manifold.markets/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708
- will most manifold users think AGI really has been achieved?
- Resolves to Manifold poll.
- Will be open for a week and boosted until it gets 100+ participants.
