When will manifold users think we have AGI? [Resolves to a majority yes in poll]

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for When will manifold users think we have AGI? [Resolves to a majority yes in poll]?

Manifold Markets prices 2026 - 2028 inclusive at 47.7% as of October 20, 2026.

When does When will manifold users think we have AGI? [Resolves to a majority yes in poll] resolve?

When will manifold users think we have AGI? [Resolves to a majority yes in poll] is scheduled to resolve on November 11, 2030.

How is When will manifold users think we have AGI? [Resolves to a majority yes in poll] settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Yearly manifold poll.

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

AI agents: call pm_data_event on the CoinRithm MCP server:

POLYMARKET

Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?

• 202924%
• 2028-2.0pt17%
• 202710%

Total Vol

$2.1M

24h Vol

$231.4K

KALSHI

DeepSeek market share this week

• Above 22.7%97%
• Above 23.8%97%
• Above 24.6%91.5%

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+4.5pt52%
• Gemini-0.3pt37.5%
• ChatGPT-1.4pt

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+4.0pt78%
• December 15,+5.0pt76%
• November 30,-1.5pt65%

+7 more outcomes

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt85.5%
• Before Mar 1, 202783%
• Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt73.5%

POLYMARKET

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?

• December 31-0.1pt98%
• October 31-5.6pt79%
• October 24-37.5pt41%

+11 more outcomes

• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• Which company has the best AI model end of October?
• Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
• Best AI this week
• OpenAI market share this week
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on?
• Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
• Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
• AI bubble burst by which date?
• Anthropic market share this week