Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 70.4%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJul 28, 26, 4:56 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRules
I will open a yes/no poll titled "Is Model UN is dumb?" when this market closes (end of 2026).
- The poll will go on for 10 days and the market will resolve to the majority's vote.
- For context, Model UN stands for Model United Nations:
- It's mostly a high school activity
- Basically a simulation of the real United Nations where students, called "delegates" are each assigned a country to represent (roleplay...)
- For each conference, a group of "delegates" (there are often hundreds of delegates per group) are assigned a topic to adress
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $805.6K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance-1.0pt44.1%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $290.1K
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- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
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- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
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- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Do Manifold users think that Model UN is dumb? (resolves end of 2026)?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 70% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Do Manifold users think that Model UN is dumb? (resolves end of 2026) resolve?
- Do Manifold users think that Model UN is dumb? (resolves end of 2026) is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Do Manifold users think that Model UN is dumb? (resolves end of 2026) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I will open a yes/no poll titled "Is Model UN is dumb?" when this market closes (end of 2026).