KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Rand Paul 75%Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
51 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$85.6
Liquidity
$13.7K
Medium liquiditySpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 13 minutes ago
May 12, 26, 2:00 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 3:00 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
If the named outcome votes Yea for Kari Lake for United States Ambassador to Jamaica before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:U.S. Senate
- Should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate, this market shall resolve to No. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, this market shall resolve to Yes.
- Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
- If the nominee is withdrawn (or intent to nominate a nominee is withdrawn by the President or President-elect), then the market will resolve to No. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
- Once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by the named outcome to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which Senators will vote for Kari Lake??
- Kalshi prices Rand Paul at 75% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Which Senators will vote for Kari Lake? resolve?
- Which Senators will vote for Kari Lake? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Which Senators will vote for Kari Lake? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the named outcome votes Yea for Kari Lake for United States Ambassador to Jamaica before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.