KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Yes 50%
Market quality
39 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$780
Low liquidityBid / Ask
49.0% / 57.0%
Spread
8.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Sep 4, 26, 4:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
If the US agrees to or announces a substantive federal action arising from its Smithsonian pressure campaign before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The White HouseU.S. Department of the InteriorNational Park Servicethe Associated PressReutersThe Washington PostABC News
- For this market, a qualifying action is limited to one of the following:
- A federal agency cancels, suspends, or refuses to renew an existing artifact loan to the Smithsonian.
- A federal agency cancels, suspends, or refuses to renew an existing procurement-assistance arrangement with the Smithsonian.
- A federal agency withholds, rescinds, suspends, or refuses a named discretionary grant to the Smithsonian, or imposes a new binding condition on that grant.
- The Department of the Interior or National Park Service installs any of the temporary Smithsonian-related signs or exhibits on National Park Service property ordered by Executive Order 14416.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump take federal action against the Smithsonian??
- Kalshi prices Yes at 50% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Trump take federal action against the Smithsonian? resolve?
- Will Trump take federal action against the Smithsonian? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Trump take federal action against the Smithsonian? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the US agrees to or announces a substantive federal action arising from its Smithsonian pressure campaign before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.