KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Guy Reschenthaler 95.9%Vig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Guy Reschenthaler 95.9%Market quality
43 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
$1.3K
Low open interestBid / Ask
0.9% / 6.8%
Spread
5.9 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jan 7, 26, 1:10 AM UTCNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the House member sworn in for PA-14 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Library of Congress
- This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Rules for each outcome
- Guy Reschenthaler
- If the House member sworn in for PA-14 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Alan Bradstock
- If the House member sworn in for PA-14 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for Guy Reschenthaler (R) is 95%. The venue spread is about 2 percentage points.
CoinRithm reference Guy Reschenthaler (R) 95% · 2 venues · 2 pt venue spread
- Also available on Polymarket — PA-14 House Election Winner · Guy Reschenthaler (R) 96%
