KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Yes · —
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Stored price
Yes 62.5%
Yes 62.5%Market quality
71 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3.5K
Open interest
$4K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
YesSpread
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Market data
Updated 30 minutes ago
Nov 5, 26, 3:00 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Yes
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?
Manifold MarketsIf Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?
Manifold MarketsIf Democrats win the House in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?
Manifold MarketsIf Republicans keep the House in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027?
Manifold MarketsGovernment shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?
KalshiGovernment shutdown by which date?
PolymarketRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable. Shutdown status is recorded at 10:00 AM ET each day. Partial shutdowns are included. A shutdown lasting "at least X days" requires the shutdown to be in effect at 10:00 AM ET on X+1 consecutive days. For example, if a shutdown is first in effect at 10:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026, and remains in effect at 10:00 AM ET on October 2, 2026, the shutdown has lasted at least 1 day. Examples that would count toward the shutdown day count: OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on the relevant date OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency" During an ongoing shutdown, OPM posts a status referencing an Executive Order excusing employees for a holiday, but does not indicate the government has resumed normal operations Examples that would NOT count toward the shutdown day count: A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations Government closures or operating status changes resulting exclusively from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations A shutdown that began before Jan 1, 2027 counts for the days it is in effect from Jan 1, 2027.
Rules for each outcome
- Yes
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- No
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.