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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced?
Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced?

Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced?

12.0% (24h)One-OffPoliticsLatin America1mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Before August 1, 2026
Before August 1, 2026 18%-12.0%
Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality

44 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$51.9

Liquidity

$2.9K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

14.0% / 24.0%

Spread

71.4%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 5 minutes ago

May 12, 26, 8:00 PMAug 1, 26, 2:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Before May 1, 2026
Before May 1, 2026
0%
Before June 1, 2026
Before June 1, 2026
0%

Selected outcome

Before August 1, 202618%

Rules

If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • An announcement that the Miguel Díaz-Canel will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
  • If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death).
  • If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.
  • Clarification (05/23/26): To clarify, Miguel Díaz-Canel currently holds two positions relevant to this market: First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba and President of Cuba.
  • For purposes of this contract, departure from either position will satisfy the Payout Criterion.

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Rules

If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • An announcement that the Miguel Díaz-Canel will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
  • If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death).
  • If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.
  • Clarification (05/23/26): To clarify, Miguel Díaz-Canel currently holds two positions relevant to this market: First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba and President of Cuba.
  • For purposes of this contract, departure from either position will satisfy the Payout Criterion.