KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityBefore September 1, 2026 5%-1.2ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
72 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$821.5
Liquidity
$291.6K
High liquidityBid / Ask
1.0% / 2.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 22 minutes ago
May 12, 26, 8:00 PMAug 1, 26, 2:00 PM
Trends
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before August 1, 20262%
Compare venues· Before September 1, 2026
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Medium | 5% | — | $821.5 | $291.6K | 22 minutes ago | |
 Polymarket80% match · verified | Medium | 30% | — | $647.9 | $16.7K | 22 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by which date?
0.5 ptsClosed
-0.5pt30%
-0.2pt0%
0%
61 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$2.1M
24h Vol$647.9
POLYMARKETRules
If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before June 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- An announcement that the Miguel Díaz-Canel will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
- If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death).
- If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.
- Clarification (05/23/26): To clarify, Miguel Díaz-Canel currently holds two positions relevant to this market: First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba and President of Cuba.
- For purposes of this contract, departure from either position will satisfy the Payout Criterion.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$822Jul 226d of dataJul 27
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If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before June 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- An announcement that the Miguel Díaz-Canel will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
- If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death).
- If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.
- Clarification (05/23/26): To clarify, Miguel Díaz-Canel currently holds two positions relevant to this market: First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba and President of Cuba.
- For purposes of this contract, departure from either position will satisfy the Payout Criterion.