KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before December 1, 2026 16%-37.0ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
65 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$123.7
Liquidity
$142.7K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Aug 22, 26, 9:00 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by which date?
PolymarketWill Miguel Díaz-Canel be leader of Cuba on January 1st 2027?
Manifold MarketsCuba's Miguel Díaz-Canel captured or killed in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Miguel Díaz-Canel be leader of Cuba on January 1st 2027?
Manifold MarketsDíaz-Canel still President of Cuba through the end of 2026?
FutuurUS federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel by which date?
PolymarketRules
If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The New York Timesthe Associated PressReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBC
- An announcement that the Miguel Díaz-Canel will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
- If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death).
- If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.
- Clarification (05/23/26): To clarify, Miguel Díaz-Canel currently holds two positions relevant to this market: First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba and President of Cuba.
- For purposes of this contract, departure from either position will satisfy the Payout Criterion.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+11.0pt80.2%
- Yes-11.0pt19.8%
- Total Vol
- $17.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.2M
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.3pt19%
- Jon Ossoff+0.8pt17%
- Gavin Newsom+0.5pt13%
+48 more outcomes
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- D-House, D-Senate+2.0pt50%
- D-House, R-Senate-2.0pt34%
- R-House, R-Senate-3.0pt14%
+1 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15%
- Gavin Newsom13%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $217.8M
- 24h Vol
- $780.3K
KALSHILos Angeles Mayor winner?
- Karen Bass-3.0pt63%
- Nithya Raman+3.0pt37%
- Total Vol
- $31.8M
- 24h Vol
- $741.9K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+1.6pt52.5%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-2.0pt45.5%
- Renan Santos+0.1pt2%
+16 more outcomes
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Next French Presidential Election
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced??
- Kalshi prices Before December 1, 2026 at 16% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced? resolve?
- Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced? is scheduled to resolve on November 1, 2026.
- How is Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.