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Data as of Oct 31, 2026, 6:48 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Before November 1, 2026 · —
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Stored price
Before November 1, 2026 3%Leader of 4 outcomes
Before November 1, 2026 3%Market quality
59 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.2K
Open interest
$116.8K
High open interestBid / Ask
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Before November 1, 2026Spread
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Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingAug 22, 26, 9:00 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Before October 1, 2026Lost
Before September 1, 2026Lost
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before November 1, 2026
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by which date?
PolymarketWill Miguel Díaz-Canel be leader of Cuba on January 1st 2027?
Manifold MarketsCuba's Miguel Díaz-Canel captured or killed in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Miguel Díaz-Canel be leader of Cuba on January 1st 2027?
Manifold MarketsDíaz-Canel still President of Cuba through the end of 2026?
FutuurUS federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel by which date?
PolymarketRules
If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before November 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The New York Timesthe Associated PressReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCBloomberg NewsNBC
- An announcement that the Miguel Díaz-Canel will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation. Clarification (05/23/26): To clarify, Miguel Díaz-Canel currently holds two positions relevant to this market: First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba and President of Cuba. For purposes of this contract, departure from either position will satisfy the Payout Criterion.
Rules for each outcome
- Before November 1, 2026
- If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before November 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before December 1, 2026
- If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before December 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before October 1, 2026
- If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before October 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before September 1, 2026
- If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before September 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.