GeminiKYC requiredVerified resolution dataData quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Aug 21, 2026, 6:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Mark Warner 96%
Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownBid / Ask
94.0% / 98.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadTraders
0
Market data
Updated 28 minutes ago
Jun 16, 26, 10:55 PMNov 10, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
96%
Rules
Who will win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Virginia?
- If the named outcome wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Virginia, then this market resolves to Yes.
- Outcome should be verified from the applicable state election authority and widely reported national sources.
- This event is mutually exclusive within the Virginia Senate election.
- Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
- If Mark Moran wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Virginia, then this market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
CoinRithm reference Mark Warner 96% · 2 venues · 0 pt band
- Also available on Polymarket — Virginia Senate Election Winner · Democrat 95%
- Also available on Smarkets — Virginia Senate Election Winner · Democrat 95%
- Also available on Kalshi — Virginia Senate winner? · Mark Warner 95%
Open markets
Politics
KALSHISouth Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
- Darline Graham-8.0pt64.2%
- Ralph Norman+7.0pt27.5%
- Pamela Evette0.9%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $13.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-0.3pt34.7%
- Édouard Philippe27.4%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon14.7%
+125 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.5%
- Gavin Newsom+2.0pt15.5%
+44 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $187.1M
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva63.4%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+0.2pt32.7%
- Renan Santos+0.1pt4%
+29 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance20%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt12%
+125 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $690.6M
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-1.0pt85.7%
- Republican Party-1.0pt14.3%
- Total Vol
- $23.7M
- 24h Vol
- $585.9K
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- North Carolina Senate winner?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- What will Trump say during his rally with Darline Graham?
- Trump out as President by August 31?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Virginia US Senate Winner?
- Gemini prices Mark Warner at 96% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does Virginia US Senate Winner resolve?
- Virginia US Senate Winner is scheduled to resolve on November 10, 2026.
- How is Virginia US Senate Winner settled?
- Gemini settles this market as follows: Who will win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Virginia?
- Where else is Virginia US Senate Winner listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket, Smarkets, Kalshi.