Will the US announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops from Europe by the end of 2026?
US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsEurope2mo
FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
No 89%
No 89%Market quality
31 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$363.8
Low liquidityTraders
9
Comments
1
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
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FutuurRules
This market aims to predict whether the United States will announce a reduction of its military personnel presence in Europe by at least 50% (approximately 32,832 people, as of the personnel report for June 2024 by the Defense Manpower Data Center) before December 31, 2026, at 23:59 (UTC-3).
- For this market to resolve as "Yes", the White House, the Department of State, or the Department of Defense must make an official announcement.
- For this market’s purposes, the official announcement will be sufficient to resolve the market to “Yes”, regardless of the practical implementation of the troops' withdrawal by the referred date.
- If multiple partial announcements are made, their total troop withdrawal figures will be cumulative.
- If the required reduction is met across multiple statements before the deadline, the market will resolve as "Yes."
- Reports by reputable news outlets and by the US Congressional Research Service may also be used as secondary sources to resolve this market and detail the number of military personnel members set for withdrawal.
