FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
No 93%
No 93%Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.2K
Low liquidityTraders
8
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops from Europe by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill any European country initiate withdrawal from NATO by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
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PolymarketRules
This event predicts whether the United States will formally announce its withdrawal from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive).
- For this market, a qualifying announcement means a formal notification consistent with Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official communications from the U.S. government, including statements by the President or formal diplomatic notifications.
- If the United States formally announces its withdrawal from NATO during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- The mandatory one-year notice period does not need to conclude within the market period for a "Yes" resolution; only the formal announcement is required.
