Will any European country initiate withdrawal from NATO by the end of 2027?
US PoliticsGeopoliticsOne-OffEurope1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85.7%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJul 10, 25, 1:54 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty reads:
- After the Treaty has been in force for twenty years, any Party may cease to be a Party one year after its notice of denunciation has been given to the Government of the United States of America, which will inform the Governments of the other Parties of the deposit of each notice of denunciation.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve YES if, at any time before the close date, a European party to the North Atlantic Treaty formally initiates its withdrawal from the treaty by giving its notice of denunciation to the United States government.
- This market will otherwise resolve NO once the close date has passed.
- For the purpose of this market:
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will any European country initiate withdrawal from NATO by the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 86% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will any European country initiate withdrawal from NATO by the end of 2027? resolve?
- Will any European country initiate withdrawal from NATO by the end of 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Will any European country initiate withdrawal from NATO by the end of 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty reads: