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Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:45 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
Revised or replaced with new legislation 12%
Revised or replaced with new legislation 12%Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$792.8
Low liquidityTraders
7
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Updated 2 minutes ago
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Section 230(c) of the Communications Decency Act be significantly amended or repealed by December 31, 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRules
This event predicts whether, on or before December 31, 2026, at 23:59:59 UTC, Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act (CDA) will be (A) revoked, annulled, or substantively repealed, or (B) revised or replaced by new legislation.
- Both outcomes may occur simultaneously (in which case both markets resolve to “Yes”), independently (in which case only one market resolves to “Yes”), or not at all (in which case both markets resolve to “No”).
- For the purposes of this event, “revoked, annulled, or repealed” includes a full repeal of Section 230 or a partial annulment that removes or invalidates its core liability protections for online intermediaries, regardless of whether such changes are replaced by new legal provisions. “Revised” refers to an amendment or modification that changes the content, scope, or application of Section 230, while “replaced” refers to the enactment of new legislation that supersedes Section 230 and governs the same subject matter.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is U.S. federal legislation passed by Congress and signed into law by the President, as recorded in official congressional and presidential records.
- If official legislative or judicial records are delayed, unavailable, or ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will be a clear and consistent consensus reported by major U.S. legal reporting services or reputable news organizations citing authoritative government sources.
- The markets will be resolved according to the substantive legal outcome—whether Section 230’s protections are revoked, revised, or replaced in whole or in material part—and not on minor technicalities of naming or legislative drafting.
