Current community forecast
Marco Rubio 42.2%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
30
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleMar 2, 26, 6:40 AM UTCMar 2, 29, 10:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.5%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
JD Vance out as VP by which date?
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ForecastExWhat will JD Vance say during RNC Convention?
KalshiRules
Resolves based on who JD Vance announces as his vice president (if he assumes presidency) OR if he announces a vice president as a candidate for president.
- Resolves no vice president announcement made if he never announces a vice president before 20 Jan 2029.
- Resolves based on first announcement of a vp pick.
- Update 2026-03-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve to the announced VP even if JD Vance announces a VP during the primary but does not win the nomination.
- Example: Ted Cruz announced Carly Fiorina as his VP in 2016 as a candidate before winning the primary.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
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- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will JD Vance announce as his VP??
- Manifold Markets prices Marco Rubio at 42% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will JD Vance announce as his VP? resolve?
- Who will JD Vance announce as his VP? is scheduled to resolve on March 2, 2029.
- How is Who will JD Vance announce as his VP? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves based on who JD Vance announces as his vice president (if he assumes presidency) OR if he announces a vice president as a candidate for president.