Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastJan 2027 7%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
18
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleMay 28, 26, 12:34 AM UTCJan 2, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PredictItRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the date on which JD Vance ceases to be the Vice President of the United States.
- Sworn in as President: If JD Vance becomes the President of the United States (e.g., due to the death, resignation, or removal of the President), he ceases to be Vice President.
- In this scenario, the market will resolve to the date he is sworn in as President.
- Resignation, Removal, or Death: If JD Vance resigns, is removed from office, is declared permanently disabled under the 25th Amendment, or passes away, the market will resolve to the date that the vacancy officially begins.
- Time Zone: Resolution will use the official calendar date in Eastern Time (ET) when the vacancy or transition takes effect.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — JD Vance out as VP by...? · December 31 5%