Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:41 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 85.6%
Forecasters
51
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleNov 6, 24, 6:02 PM UTCJan 22, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will JD Vance resign as US Vice President during Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance become President of the US before November 1, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance become President before January 20, 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance be impeached during Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsWill President Trump be impeached during his term?
KalshiWill JD Vance be elected President of the United States in 2028?
FutuurRules
JD Vance is vice president-elect of the United States.
- If Donald Trump ceases to be President during 2025-2029 term, JD Vance will be next in line in presidential succession.
- Donald Trump's term office begins 20 Jan 2025, and ends 20 Jan 2029.
- Will JD Vance succeed Trump and become US President during this term of office?
- Becoming acting-president for a brief medical procedure would not count.
- Becoming acting-president by involuntary use of the 25th amendment would count.
