Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 79.7%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Feb 18, 26, 4:41 PM UTCJan 19, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market resolves YES if JD Vance becomes President of the United States at any point between now and January 19, 2029 (before Trump's second term ends).
- CONTEXT: The 22nd Amendment creates an interesting incentive: if Vance becomes president AFTER January 20, 2027 (the midpoint of Trump's term), he could potentially serve up to 10 years total as president (remainder of Trump's term + two full elected terms).
- If he becomes president BEFORE that date, he can only serve one additional elected term.
- RESOLVES YES IF: - Vance assumes the presidency via 25th Amendment (voluntary or involuntary) - Trump resigns and Vance succeeds him - Trump dies and Vance succeeds him - Any other scenario where Vance becomes president before Jan 20, 2029 RESOLVES NO IF: - Trump completes his full second term - Someone other than Vance becomes president before Jan 20, 2029 Resolution date: January 20, 2029 (or earlier if YES)
