Which party will control the Senate after the 2026 election?
One-OffPoliticsElectionUS Politics2026 US Midterms4mo
PredictItCheck availabilityKYC requiredUnverified resolution dataRetail prediction exchange
Current implied probability
Democratic 63%
Democratic 63%Methodology
Retail prediction exchange
Question type
-
24h Volume
$7.2K
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Jul 15, 25, 1:47 PM UTCFeb 17, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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SmarketsRules
Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 09/29/2026.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that holds a majority of seats of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, holds half or more of the seats, following the 2026 midterm elections.
The number of seats that a party holds following the 2026 midterm elections will be the sum of the following: i) the number of U.S. Senate seats won in the 2026 midterm elections by candidates with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable affiliation for that party, and ii) the number of incumbent Senate seats not subject to re-election or special election in 2026 held by members of that party's caucus.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that holds a majority of seats of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, holds half or more of the seats, following the 2026 midterm elections.
The number of seats that a party holds following the 2026 midterm elections will be the sum of the following: i) the number of U.S. Senate seats won in the 2026 midterm elections by candidates with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable affiliation for that party, and ii) the number of incumbent Senate seats not subject to re-election or special election in 2026 held by members of that party's caucus.
- In the event that a Senate seat is vacant but an election will not be held in the 2026 midterm elections, that seat will be considered to be held by the party associated with the seat's most recent incumbent.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. - Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
- If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 09/29/2026 10:23 AM (ET)In response to trader inquiry: For purposes of this market, a person switching parties on or after Election Day shall have no effect on resolution of the market.
