Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?
5.7 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsEuropeCrime & JusticeElection
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes
Resolved: Jul 9, 2026, 3:35 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Yes
At 7 days out
20%
At 24 hours out
94%
ConsensusCurrent implied probability
Yes 100%+0.1pt
Market quality
45 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$3.4K
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownBid / Ask
97.6% / 100.0%
Spread
2.4 pt
Moderate spread7d Change
+80.8 pts
Market data
Updated 53 days ago
StaleJan 19, 26, 8:21 PMMar 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes100%
No0%
100%
0%
Rules
On March 31, 2025, Marine Le Pen was sentenced to a five-year ban from public office for embezzlement of public funds, potentially blocking her from the 2027 presidential race.
- The appeal focuses on this penalty, with hearings currently scheduled to run from January 13 to February 12.
- You can read more about that here: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2026/01/13/understanding-marine-le-pen-s-crucial-appeals-trial_6749363_8.html.
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Paris Court of Appeal issues an initial appeal decision, lifting, annulling, suspending, or otherwise removing Marine Le Pen’s ineligibility penalty such that she is legally permitted to run for public office again, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market will resolve immediately based on the first merits judgment rendered by the Paris Court of Appeal in this appeal, regardless of any subsequent appeals or legal proceedings.
