PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 30, 2026, 10:37 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
October 31 · —
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Stored reference
October 31 4%Leader of 4 outcomes
October 31 4%Market quality
36 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$83.1
Liquidity
$10.3K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$846.1
Bid / Ask
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October 31Spread
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Comments
0
7d Change
+1.1 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleAug 18, 26, 10:51 PM UTCOct 31, 26, 8:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
August 31Lost
September 15Lost
September 30Lost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · October 31
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Houthis target Syria by which date?
PolymarketWill Iran target the United Arab Emirates by which date?
PolymarketWill Iran target Saudi Arabia by which date?
PolymarketWill Iran target Jordan by which date?
PolymarketWill the US reopen its embassy in Syria?
KalshiWill the United States cease its military campaign in Syria by 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Syria through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Damascus time.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Syria.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.