PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
September 30 11%+6.6ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
36 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.1K
Liquidity
$779.7
Low liquiditySpread
8.8 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
7d Change
-1.9 pts
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Aug 18, 26, 10:51 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 8:59 PM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Iran target Ukraine by which date?
PolymarketWill Iran target an Arab country by which date?
PolymarketWill Iran target Qatar by which date?
PolymarketWill the United States cease its military campaign in Syria by 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel and Syria normalize relations during Trump's term?
KalshiWill the US reopen its embassy in Syria?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Syria through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Damascus time.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Syria.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Iran target Syria by which date??
- Polymarket prices September 30 at 11% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Iran target Syria by which date? resolve?
- Will Iran target Syria by which date? is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is Will Iran target Syria by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Syria through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Damascus time.