Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms?
2.5 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection1mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Democratic Party 56.1%-2.5ptLeader of 3 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$421.9
Liquidity
$18.1K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+20.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Aug 18, 26, 7:27 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the party, between the the named outcome and the the named outcome, that holds the most US governor seats as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
- If the the named outcome and the the named outcome hold the same number of governor seats as a result of the 2026 midterm elections, this market will resolve to “Tie”.
- This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026.
- If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
- For governor seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the governor was elected.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for Democratic Party is 56%. Quotes span about 1 percentage point between the widest venues.
CoinRithm reference Democratic Party 56% · 2 venues · 1 pt venue spread
- Also available on Kalshi — Who will hold more governorships after the midterms? · Democratic Party 56%
