Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastDemocrats 84.5%
Forecasters
180
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleDec 12, 23, 2:00 PMNov 15, 26, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Democrats85%
Compare venues· Democrats
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 85% | — | — | — | 11 hours ago | |
 Metaculus88% match · verified | — | 70% | — | — | — | 1 minute ago | Open → |
Also available on Metaculus
Which party will hold the most seats in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?
3mo
69.9%
28.1%
2%
Community forecast72 forecastersType: multiple choice
METACULUSRules
Independents or other party candidates will count for what party they identify most with from a general consensus among media outlets if no consensus is met and it affects who has a majority then whoever holds the speaker of the house will hold the majority.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$61Jul 1011d of dataJul 26
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