Which party will hold the majority in the US Senate of the 120th Congress in January 2027?
Politics3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastDemocrat 62%
Forecasters
25
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJan 12, 26, 9:27 PM UTCJan 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolution Criteria
- Senators elected in the November 3, 2026 elections will begin their six-year terms on January 3, 2027, marking the start of the 120th Congress.
- The market resolves based on which party holds a majority of Senate seats on that date.
- Senate control requires 51 seats or 50 seats with control of the vice presidency.
- Resolution can be verified via official Senate records at senate.gov.
- As a result of the 2024 general elections, Republicans won a 53-45 majority in the Senate, with two independents caucusing with the Democrats.