Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 82%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJul 23, 26, 2:00 PM UTCDec 31, 35, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Non-Republicans hold at least 53% of House seats on any day by July 27, 2027? (7/27/27)
Manifold Markets2026 Midterms: Will Non-Republicans hold at least 54% of House seats on any day by July 31, 2027? (7/31/27)
Manifold Markets2026 Midterms: Will Non-Republicans hold at least 54.3% of House seats on any day by August 2, 2027? (8/2/27)
Manifold MarketsHow many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
KalshiHow many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
KalshiWill Republicans hold a midterm convention?
KalshiRules
Based on the remark here:
- Hunter Wallace (@LutherEnjoyer) on X
- [link preview]
Open markets
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $808.4K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $342.3K
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.2%
- Marco Rubio20.2%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt4.8%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
- 24h Vol
- $338.6K
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Republicans hold the House at any point between 2028 and 2035??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 82% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Republicans hold the House at any point between 2028 and 2035? resolve?
- Will Republicans hold the House at any point between 2028 and 2035? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2035.
- How is Will Republicans hold the House at any point between 2028 and 2035? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Based on the remark here: