PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 97%+1.1pt
Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$215.5
Liquidity
$24.8K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
2.4% / 4.5%
Spread
2.1 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
+1.2 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Nov 5, 25, 7:23 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
🧭Which of these things will happen before Ukraine joins NATO? [ADD RESPONSES]
Manifold MarketsUkraine joins EU before 2029?
Manifold MarketsNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRussia military action against EU country by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- December 31+4.5pt33%
- October 31+4.0pt21%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.6M
- 24h Vol
- $393.8K
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $67.9M
- 24h Vol
- $389.8K
POLYMARKETTrump x Greenland deal signed by which date?
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- December 31+1.9pt99%
- September 23+10.2pt98%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.4pt64%
- October 31+4.0pt42%
- September 30+3.5pt13%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt37%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-3.0pt28%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+4.0pt12%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- September 25+3.6pt96%
- September 30+6.0pt90%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $178.2K
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- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Ukraine joins NATO before 2027??
- Polymarket prices No at 97% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? resolve?
- Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”.