Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90.8%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleDec 23, 25, 11:52 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
Polymarket🧭Which of these things will happen before Ukraine joins NATO? [ADD RESPONSES]
Manifold MarketsRussia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026
Manifold MarketsNord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?
PolymarketWill a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
PolymarketWill conclusive evidence emerge before 2030 that Viktor Orbán is a Russian asset?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- Accession negotiations officially opened on 25 June 2024, and the market resolves YES if Ukraine becomes a full member of the European Union before January 1, 2029.
- Resolution will be determined by official EU announcements confirming Ukraine's accession as a member state.
- The market resolves NO if Ukraine has not achieved full membership by December 31, 2028.
- Ukraine applied for membership of the European Union on 28 February 2022, four days after it was invaded by Russia.
- The European Council granted Ukraine the status of a candidate for accession to the EU on 23 June 2022.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.1pt60.4%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-2.0pt38.6%
- Renan Santos+0.1pt1%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $153.2M
- 24h Vol
- $1M
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+2.0pt60.4%
- D-House, R-Senate29.7%
- Republicans sweep-0.9pt8.9%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $17.9M
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt21%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.3pt13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.9%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15.8%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.7%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $223.1M
KALSHILos Angeles Mayor winner?
- Karen Bass-6.0pt56.4%
- Nithya Raman+6.0pt43.6%
- Total Vol
- $33.2M
- 24h Vol
- $618.3K
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-0.7pt90.1%
- Republican Party+0.8pt9.9%
- Total Vol
- $34.5M
- 24h Vol
- $546K
- Next French Presidential Election
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Ohio Senate winner?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 22, 2026?
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Ukraine joins EU before 2029??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 90.8% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does Ukraine joins EU before 2029? resolve?
- Ukraine joins EU before 2029? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2029.
- How is Ukraine joins EU before 2029? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria