![🧭Which of these things will happen before Ukraine joins NATO? [ADD RESPONSES]](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%2Fv0%2Fb%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fo%2Fuser-images%252Fdefault%252FmoOBx7J0kc.jpg%3Falt%3Dmedia%26token%3D9a5ab6c5-8ae3-42cc-95f7-10a91aec5d4a&w=128&q=80)
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Death Stranding 2 releases 100%Leader of 38 outcomes
Forecasters
57
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleMar 6, 24, 9:20 PM UTCJan 2, 50, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
PolymarketWhich of these things will happen in relation to Ilhan Omar in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these things will happen in 2026 in the US/Greenland saga?
Manifold MarketsUkraine joins EU before 2029?
Manifold MarketsTrump renames AI by September 30?
PolymarketDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketRules
Update 2025-07-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has acknowledged that the market was misresolved and will likely correct it.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- December 31+4.5pt33%
- October 31+4.0pt21%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.6M
- 24h Vol
- $393.8K
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $67.9M
- 24h Vol
- $389.8K
POLYMARKETTrump x Greenland deal signed by which date?
- September 25+5.7pt99%
- December 31+1.9pt99%
- September 23+10.2pt98%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.4pt64%
- October 31+4.0pt42%
- September 30+3.5pt13%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt37%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-3.0pt28%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+4.0pt12%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- September 25+3.6pt96%
- September 30+6.0pt90%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $178.2K
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by which date?
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 🧭Which of these things will happen before Ukraine joins NATO? [ADD RESPONSES]?
- Manifold Markets prices Death Stranding 2 releases at 100% as of September 21, 2026.
- When does 🧭Which of these things will happen before Ukraine joins NATO? [ADD RESPONSES] resolve?
- 🧭Which of these things will happen before Ukraine joins NATO? [ADD RESPONSES] is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2050.
- How is 🧭Which of these things will happen before Ukraine joins NATO? [ADD RESPONSES] settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Update 2025-07-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has acknowledged that the market was misresolved and will likely correct it.