PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
37.5–37.9 43.1%+26.0ptLeader of 6 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
37.5–37.9 43.1%+26.0ptMarket quality
50 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.4K
Liquidity
$2.3K
Low liquiditySpread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Sep 29, 26, 12:22 AM UTCOct 2, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump's approval rating hit 37% or lower before Dec 1st 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Trump's approval rating be higher on election day (Nov. 3, 2026) than it was in his first term (Nov. 6, 2018)?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump's approval rating increase this week? (9/25-10/2)
KalshiWill Trump's approval rating drop below 35% (538/RCP average) at any point in 2026?
Manifold MarketsTrump's DDHQ job approval rating on Oct. 2?
PredictItUK governmental approval rating among women falls below 5% in 2026.
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on October 2, 2026.
- Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
- This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date.
- Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
- If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
- The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.).
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — Trump's approval rating on Oct 2, 2026? · 38.5 to 38.7 38%