KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Sep 26, 2026, 12:35 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
No 54%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownBid / Ask
45.0% / 46.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Sep 25, 26, 4:34 PM UTCOct 2, 26, 1:59 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump's approval rating be higher on election day (Nov. 3, 2026) than it was in his first term (Nov. 6, 2018)?
Manifold MarketsTrump's approval rating on Oct 2, 2026?
KalshiWhat will President Trump's RCP job approval rating be on Sept. 30?
PredictItTrump's DDHQ job approval rating on Oct. 2?
PredictItMidterms: Trump approval in the exit poll?
KalshiHow low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
PolymarketRules
If Donald Trump's VoteHub approval polling average is above 37.7% at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:VoteHub
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase-4.0pt62.4%
- No change+4.0pt36.6%
- 50+ bps increase-0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $14M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
- Gavin Newsom+1.6pt15%
- Jon Ossoff-1.3pt15%
+50 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+0.2pt92%
- Republican Party-0.5pt8%
- Total Vol
- $37.3M
- 24h Vol
- $591.5K
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance+0.2pt21%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt13%
- Jon Ossoff+0.1pt12%
+50 more outcomes
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+1.0pt61%
- D-House, R-Senate-2.0pt30%
- Republicans sweep-0.3pt8%
+1 more outcomes
KALSHITexas Senate winner?
- James Talarico+2.0pt61%
- Ken Paxton-4.0pt39%
- Total Vol
- $14.6M
- 24h Vol
- $431K
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- New Hampshire Senate winner?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026?
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Minnesota Senate winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump's approval rating increase this week? (9/25-10/2)?
- Kalshi prices No at 54% as of September 26, 2026.
- When does Will Trump's approval rating increase this week? (9/25-10/2) resolve?
- Will Trump's approval rating increase this week? (9/25-10/2) is scheduled to resolve on October 2, 2026.
- How is Will Trump's approval rating increase this week? (9/25-10/2) settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Donald Trump's VoteHub approval polling average is above 37.7% at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.