PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
40% 100%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$68.6
Liquidity
$13.5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
28.0% / 33.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Moderate spread7d Change
-1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 23 minutes ago
Nov 5, 25, 5:50 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
100%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
35%31%
Compare venues· 35%
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Low | 31% | 0pt | $68.6 | $13.5K | 23 minutes ago | |
 Smarkets75% match · auto | Low | 28% | -3pt | $0 | $0 | 23 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Smarkets
Trump Approval Rating Low 2026
27.8%
4%
4%
22 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$1.4K
24h Vol$0
SMARKETSRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
- This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date.
- Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
- If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$69Jul 226d of dataJul 28
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
- This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date.
- Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
- If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.