Will Trump's approval rating be higher on election day (Nov. 3, 2026) than it was in his first term (Nov. 6, 2018)?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection8d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:41 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 98%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJan 26, 26, 3:05 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolution Criteria
- Market resolves YES if Trump's approval rating on November 3rd, 2026 is higher on the Silver Bulletin than it was in his first term (using FiveThirtyEight, who, through the Wayback machine, puts his approval at 42.0%).
- If the Silver Bulletin is not available, then I'll use RealClearPolitics for both 2018 and 2026 (43.5% in 2018).
- Market resolves NO if equal or lower.
- Background How popular is Donald Trump? - Silver Bulletin
- Wayback Machine - FiveThirtyEight