Will Trump's approval rating be higher on election day (Nov. 3, 2026) than it was in his first term (Nov. 6, 2018)?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJan 26, 26, 3:05 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- Market resolves YES if Trump's approval rating on November 3rd, 2026 is higher on the Silver Bulletin than it was in his first term (using FiveThirtyEight, who, through the Wayback machine, puts his approval at 42.0%).
- If the Silver Bulletin is not available, then I'll use RealClearPolitics for both 2018 and 2026 (43.5% in 2018).
- Market resolves NO if equal or lower.
- Background How popular is Donald Trump? - Silver Bulletin
- Wayback Machine - FiveThirtyEight