KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
38.5 to 38.7 21.3%Leader of 8 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
38.5 to 38.7 21.3%Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3.5K
Liquidity
$3.3K
Medium liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Sep 25, 26, 4:34 PM UTCOct 2, 26, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- No
- Settlement timer:
- 1h (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Trump's DDHQ job approval rating on Oct. 2?
PredictItWill Trump's approval rating be higher on election day (Nov. 3, 2026) than it was in his first term (Nov. 6, 2018)?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump's approval rating increase this week? (9/25-10/2)
KalshiWhat will President Trump's RCP job approval rating be on Sept. 30?
PredictItMidterms: Trump approval in the exit poll?
KalshiHow high will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?
KalshiRules
If the President's approval rating is the named outcome% at 11:00 AM ET on October 02, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:RealClearPolitics
- The market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on October 02, 2026.
- If the President's approval rating is between 38.2 and 38.4% at 11:00 AM ET on October 02, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the President's approval rating is between 38.5 and 38.7% at 11:00 AM ET on October 02, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the President's approval rating is between 38.8 and 39.0% at 11:00 AM ET on October 02, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the President's approval rating is between 39.1 and 39.3% at 11:00 AM ET on October 02, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.
