Will Trump's approval rating drop below 35% (538/RCP average) at any point in 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 70.8%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleMar 28, 26, 4:17 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if Donald Trump's approval rating drops below 35% at any point during 2026, as measured by either:
- FiveThirtyEight (538) presidential approval tracker, OR
- RealClearPolitics (RCP) approval average
- Resolution criteria:
- Either tracker showing below 35.0% on any single day counts
- Must be the headline approval number (not disapproval)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump's approval rating drop below 35% (538/RCP average) at any point in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 71% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Trump's approval rating drop below 35% (538/RCP average) at any point in 2026? resolve?
- Will Trump's approval rating drop below 35% (538/RCP average) at any point in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Trump's approval rating drop below 35% (538/RCP average) at any point in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if Donald Trump's approval rating drops below 35% at any point during 2026, as measured by either: