Will Trump's approval rating drop below 35% (538/RCP average) at any point in 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 77.3%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleMar 28, 26, 4:17 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Trump's approval rating on Oct 30, 2026?
KalshiTrump approval rating at least ___ on October 30?
PolymarketWill Trump's approval rating increase this week? (10/23-10/30)
KalshiHow low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
PolymarketTrump approval rating on October 30?
PolymarketHow low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?
KalshiRules
Resolves YES if Donald Trump's approval rating drops below 35% at any point during 2026, as measured by either:
- FiveThirtyEight (538) presidential approval tracker, OR
- RealClearPolitics (RCP) approval average
- Resolution criteria:
- Either tracker showing below 35.0% on any single day counts
- Must be the headline approval number (not disapproval)