KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Below 38.5% 41.1%Leader of 9 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Below 38.5% 41.1%Market quality
60 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$186.5K
Open interest
$126K
High open interestMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Sep 30, 26, 2:01 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 4:59 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
If Trump's RCP approval average is below 38.5% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:RealClearPolitics
- The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.
Rules for each outcome
- Below 38.5%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is below 38.5% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 38.5%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.5% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 38.8%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.8% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 38.6%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.6% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 38.7%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.7% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 38.9%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.9% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 39.1%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 39.1% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 39.1%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is above 39.1% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 39.0%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 39.0% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.