PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
October 4 · —
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Stored reference
October 4 93%Leader of 31 outcomes
October 4 93%Market quality
53 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$882.2
Liquidity
$2.1K
Low liquidityOpen interest
$2.6K
Bid / Ask
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October 4Spread
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Comments
0
7d Change
-39.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Sep 30, 26, 11:58 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
October 1Won
October 10Won
October 11Won
Before close: 100% ·
October 12Won
October 13Won
October 16Won
October 18Won
October 2Won
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · October 4
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Houthis successfully target shipping by which date?
PolymarketFree flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran and Oman announce a permanent Hormuz shipping scheme by October 31?
Manifold MarketsWill traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before November 1, 2026? (Shipping) (Oil tankers)?
ForecastExUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM UTC.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman.
- An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.
- No attribution is required.
- A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.