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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Israel election: will Likud lose seats?
Israel election: will Likud lose seats?

Israel election: will Likud lose seats?

13.0% (24h)One-OffPoliticsElectionMiddle East4mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 83%+0.1%
Market quality

60 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$26.2

Liquidity

$8.4K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

81.0% / 85.0%

Spread

4.9%

Moderate spread
7d Change

+7.5%

Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

Apr 29, 26, 11:54 PMOct 27, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes83%

Rules

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

Polymarket
  • This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election.
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted.
  • If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
  • If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

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Active in these topics

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Rules

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

Polymarket
  • This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election.
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted.
  • If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
  • If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".