Iran blockade lifted before US x Iran ceasefire ends?
PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsMiddle EastUS Politics8mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No · —
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Stored reference
No 55%
No 55%Market quality
37 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$203.7
Liquidity
$526.9
Low liquidityOpen interest
$106.6
Bid / Ask
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NoSpread
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Market data
Updated 28 minutes ago
Oct 29, 26, 9:33 PM UTCJul 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers before the ceasefire between the United States and Iran ends.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If neither a qualifying announcement of the end of the blockade nor the end of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
- An announcement of the end of the blockade qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees).
- An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
