PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 25-29
Resolved: Oct 22, 2026, 4:07 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
25-29
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 1:43 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
25-29100%
20-240%
35-390%
30-341%
40+0%
25-29Won
20-24Lost
30-34Lost
35-39Lost
40+Lost
<20Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?
Polymarket0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by which date?
PolymarketWill 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill 200 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to actual normal of 100 ships per day during Trump's presidency.
Manifold MarketsWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from October 12, 2026, through October 18, 2026, inclusive.
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published.
- If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
- In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections.