PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 21%-2.0pt
Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$175.7
Liquidity
$35.9K
High liquidityBid / Ask
2.3% / 5.9%
Spread
3.6 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Sep 11, 26, 8:17 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 14?
PolymarketWill the 7-day moving average of ships passing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ever fall below 15 in 2026?
Manifold MarketsBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
PolymarketBab el-Mandeb Strait closed by which date?
FutuurBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
LimitlessHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 14?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication.
- If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 11+5.7pt98%
- September 18+4.7pt98%
- September 30+2.8pt98%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3.2M
- 24h Vol
- $711.3K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+3.6pt49.6%
- October 31+11.0pt32%
- September 30+4.0pt13.6%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- September 30+11.5pt96%
- September 25+13.8pt96%
- September 18+25.8pt95%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot-0.7pt54.1%
- Benjamin Netanyahu30.6%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt9.2%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No-1.0pt82.2%
- Yes+1.0pt17.8%
- Total Vol
- $11.7M
- 24h Vol
- $90.1K
- Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Israel closes its airspace by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Houthis enter Aden by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by which date??
- Polymarket prices December 31 at 21% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does 0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by which date? resolve?
- 0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by which date? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is 0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026.