Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 67.7%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 5, 26, 4:44 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if the USA controls Venezuela by December 31, 2026. "Control" is defined as the Trump administration's stated objective of running the country until a political transition occurs.
- Resolution will be determined by whether the US maintains effective administrative and military control over Venezuelan territory and governance, as evidenced by:
- Continued US military presence and operational authority in Venezuela
- US direction of Venezuelan government functions and policy
- US control over Venezuelan oil infrastructure and resource extraction
