Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94.7%
Forecasters
41
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleDec 24, 24, 2:36 AM UTCJan 2, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
If the US clearly has territorial sovereignty, whether de facto or de jure, over the entirety of the island of Greenland sometime before January 1, 2027, this market resolves YES, otherwise this market resolves NO on 1/1/27.
- If the US enters into a Compact of Free Association with Greenland, Greenland is administered under an independent Greenlandic administration, Greenland is administered by both the US and Denmark, the US gains mineral/exploration rights but not political control, or if only a part of Greenland is subject to the US (ex.
- Pituffik Space Base right now, future military bases), this market resolves NO.
- If Greenland is administered as a semi-autonomous region but can still be ultimately subject to the US federal government, ex.
- US tribal lands, this market resolves YES.
- If the US temporarily leases the entire island of Greenland and has control over the island and its affairs sometime before 2026, this market still resolves YES even if that control expired.
