Will Ukrainian government accept a peace deal that includes the loss of contested lands in the east (Donetsk and/or Lugansk)
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 66.1%
Forecasters
265
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMay 19, 22, 12:55 PM UTCDec 24, 53, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
This market is resolved when a permanent peace treaty is signed between Ukrainian and Russian governments, or the total capitulation of either side.
- Sep 29, 9:44pm: added capitulation clause.
- Oct 1, 12:37pm: A temporary ceasefire that lasts over a year without casualties, while Russia still occupies the territories in question will resolve market to YES.
- Close date updated to 2025-12-23 11:59 pm
- Close date updated to 2053-12-23 11:59 pm
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Ukrainian government accept a peace deal that includes the loss of contested lands in the east (Donetsk and/or Lugansk)?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 66% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Ukrainian government accept a peace deal that includes the loss of contested lands in the east (Donetsk and/or Lugansk) resolve?
- Will Ukrainian government accept a peace deal that includes the loss of contested lands in the east (Donetsk and/or Lugansk) is scheduled to resolve on December 24, 2053.
- How is Will Ukrainian government accept a peace deal that includes the loss of contested lands in the east (Donetsk and/or Lugansk) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market is resolved when a permanent peace treaty is signed between Ukrainian and Russian governments, or the total capitulation of either side.