Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97.8%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleSep 29, 23, 8:04 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Ukraine be a member state of the EU at EOY 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill Hungary be a member state of the EU on January 1st 2032?
Manifold MarketsWill Turkey be a member state of the EU on January 1st 2032?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketWhat will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 7 - September 13)
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.3pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.4pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26M
- 24h Vol
- $717.9K
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-8.0pt72%
- September 18-7.0pt68%
- September 11-9.0pt61%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.1pt49.1%
- October 31-1.0pt29.3%
- September 3012.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+4.0pt80.2%
- Yes-4.0pt19.8%
- Total Vol
- $10.9M
- 24h Vol
- $288.1K
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Ukraine be a member state of the EU at EOY 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 98% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Ukraine be a member state of the EU at EOY 2027? resolve?
- Will Ukraine be a member state of the EU at EOY 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.