Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 89.7%
Forecasters
35
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJul 4, 25, 5:26 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Any Trump statement/tweet/truth/etc claiming election fraud/theft/rigging as the results of the midterms come out.
- Only statements by Trump himself will be considered, not members of his admin.
- I will bet on this market.
- Update 2025-07-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A statement that only expresses suspicion, such as "very suspicious", without explicitly claiming fraud, theft, or rigging, will not be sufficient for a YES resolution.
Open markets
PoliticsKALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.9%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15.8%
- Gavin Newsom13.7%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $222.4M
- 24h Vol
- $814.6K
KALSHIWhat will Trump say this week?
- TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome99%
- Barack Hussein Obama99%
- Cuba / Cuban99%
+34 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
- $671.2K
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.3pt91.1%
- Republican Party-0.6pt8.9%
- Total Vol
- $34M
- 24h Vol
- $468.7K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+1.0pt60%
- D-House, R-Senate30%
- Republicans sweep-0.6pt9%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $17.1M
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.8pt3%
- April 300%
- June 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- December-2.0pt19%
- October13%
- September 30,-0.8pt4%
- Total Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump claim election fraud in the 2026 midterms??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 90% as of September 21, 2026.
- When does Will Trump claim election fraud in the 2026 midterms? resolve?
- Will Trump claim election fraud in the 2026 midterms? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Trump claim election fraud in the 2026 midterms? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Any Trump statement/tweet/truth/etc claiming election fraud/theft/rigging as the results of the midterms come out.