Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92.5%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJun 15, 26, 4:34 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 5:28 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
By end of 2026, will I believe that there was meaningful election fraud in the 2026 LA mayoral primary? I would count paying people to vote but not paying them to register, intentional miscounting of votes / misreporting tallies, etc. I wouldn't count a few illegal immigrants voting, but I would count a coordinated effort to encourage them to, or >1000 doing so independently.
- The fraud doesn't have to have changed the outcome of the race, but it does have to have affected more than just a few (100?) votes.
Open markets
Politics
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Did the 2026 LA mayoral primary have election fraud??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 93% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Did the 2026 LA mayoral primary have election fraud? resolve?
- Did the 2026 LA mayoral primary have election fraud? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Did the 2026 LA mayoral primary have election fraud? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: By end of 2026, will I believe that there was meaningful election fraud in the 2026 LA mayoral primary? I would count paying people to vote but not paying them to register, intentional miscounting of votes / misreporting tallies, etc. I wouldn't count a few illegal immigrants voting, but I would count a coordinated effort to encourage them to, or >1000 doing so independently.