Will there be large voting fraud accusations following 2026 midterms?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionCrime & Justice3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 84.2%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleSep 13, 26, 3:15 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to Yes if, between November 3, 2026, and January 31, 2027, inclusive, at least one of the following conditions is met:
- Formal Lawsuits: A candidate for U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives, or Governor in the 2026 midterm elections, or a major national political party committee (such as the DNC or RNC, or their state-level equivalents), files a lawsuit in a state or federal court alleging systemic, widespread, or outcome-altering election fraud, voter fraud, or election rigging in a 2026 midterm race.
- (Standard recount petitions or procedural challenges regarding ballot-counting rules that do not explicitly allege fraud or rigging do not qualify.)
- Refusal to Concede with Fraud Claims: At least one major-party candidate (Democrat or Republican) for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, or Governor refuses to concede their election for at least 14 days after Election Day (November 3, 2026) while publicly alleging that election or voter fraud altered the outcome.
- Official Investigations: A state Attorney General, state election board, or federal agency (such as the Department of Justice) officially announces a formal investigation into allegations of outcome-altering or widespread fraud in a 2026 midterm race.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be large voting fraud accusations following 2026 midterms??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 84% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Will there be large voting fraud accusations following 2026 midterms? resolve?
- Will there be large voting fraud accusations following 2026 midterms? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will there be large voting fraud accusations following 2026 midterms? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria